Please provide your email address to receive an email when new articles are posted on . In a recent survey study, nearly 80% of physicians overestimated the probability of successful patient outcomes ...

After you read this, you’ll have a 32% chance at better understanding how bad you are at probability. If the risk of an event goes up or down, we assume that it will keep changing in that direction.

New cancer therapies are frequently evaluated in multiple disease indications. We evaluated whether the probability of achieving US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for a new cancer therapy ...