Recessions are not predictable with precision. But they are priceable, and at 40% to 50% probability, the risk deserves portfolio-level attention. The investors best positioned for whatever happens ...

There is considerable risk for kinetic hostilities to resume, in my view, and the disruptions in energy markets are ...

(ticker: GS) recently raised its recession probability to 30%, up five percentage points. Meanwhile, BlackRock Inc. (BLK) is ...

Goldman Sachs has lifted its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 25%, but the headline number only captures part of the shift underway. The bigger issue is what is driving it. A cooling labor ...

Polymarket bettors have wagered $1.3 million on a US recession by end of 2026, with odds at 30%. JPMorgan puts the ...

Moody's recession model is flashing a warning signal that a recession could be around the corner -- and that was before oil ...

Goldman Sachs just bumped its U.S. recession probability to 30% from 25%, underscoring how quickly things are moving. Just weeks ago, the odds were closer to 20%, but now we’re seeing the risk being ...

Gunvor warns of a global recession risk if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three months. US recession in 2026 now at ...

Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI, believes the probability of a recession remains low and that the Federal Reserve is positioned to support markets. In an interview with CNBC, ...

Building on Ben Bernanke’s widely used recession probability model, we invented a better model using exactly the same data. I have modeled recession forecasts since 2006. Our new method is a ...

It's becoming harder to ignore the risk of a recession as the Iran war causes historic disruptions in energy markets. The US economy skated through 2025 on a solid footing, but the bull case for ...